Econometric Game 2019
One of the key drivers of global warming is atmospheric carbon dioxide. Can econometric models give an answer to the question which emission scenarios are congruent with a given aim for atmospheric concentrations and thus, eventually, global temperatures? This is one of the central questions behind proposals that were discussed at, for example, the 2015 climate conferen- ce in Paris. This year’s case investigates precisely this problem. Man-made emissions of carbon dioxide are partly absorbed by the ocean and by plants. The remainder ends up in the atmosphere, increasing atmospheric concentration and the resulting greenhouse effect. Annual data and estimates on these components are published by the Global Carbon Project. This year’s case focuses on the annual time series of carbon dioxide emissions, terrestrial and marine absorption, and growth in atmospheric concentrations. The global carbon budget equation is the basic structural element that underlies the contestants’ statistical models, and we employ the models to explore emission paths compatible with the concentrations and temperature scenarios studied in the Representative Common Pathways initiative.
Casemaker and jury
This year’s casemaker is Eric Hillebrand. He is currently a professor at the department of Economics and Business Economics at the Aarhus University in Denmark. Eric is also the director of CREATES, which is the Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series. Before joining Aarhus University he was an associate and assistent professor at the Department of Economics at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge and a visiting researcher at the Department of Mathematics at Stanford University in Palo Alto. Eric received his PhD in Economics from the University of Bremen, Germany. His primary interests are time series econometrics, financial econometrics and mathematics in economics and finance. Eric Hillebrand is a senior editor of the Advances in Econometrics series and has published over twenty articles containing these main interests.
Siem Jan Koopman
Siem Jan Koopman is Professor of Econometrics at the Department of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and is research fellow at Tinbergen Institute. He is a founding fellow of the International Association of Applied Econometrics, a fellow of the Society of Financial Econometrics (SoFiE) and a distinguished author of the Journal of Applied Econometrics.
Stephan Smeekes is associate professor in econometrics at the Department of Quantitative Economics of Maastricht University, and member of the Young Academy of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). His main research interests lie in the field of time series econometrics, combining techniques on the interface between econometrics, statistics and data science. Unfortunately due to illnes Stephan Smeekes is not able to attend the Econometric Game. Therefore Mikkel Bennedsen will take his place. Mikkel Bennedsen is an old colleague of Eric Hillebrand. He is an assistent professor at Aarhus University.
Peter Boswijk is a professor of Financial Econometrics at the University of Amsterdam. His research on the econometric analysis of financial time series has been published in international journals such as Econometric Theory, the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics and the Journal of Econometrics.